By Salman Farsi

Sadiq Khan looks poised to win a third term as Mayor of London, though his expected victory comes amid significant criticism over rising crime rates and controversial green policies during his eight years in office.

The latest polling from YouGov shows the incumbent Labour politician holding a commanding 22-point lead over his nearest rival, Conservative Susan Hall. Some 47% of decided voters say they will back Khan on Thursday, compared to just 25% for Hall.

Khan appears to have secured another four years after performing strongly across both inner and outer London boroughs. In inner London, he leads Hall by 54% to 17%, while in outer areas he is ahead 43% to 30%.

However, Khan’s critics argue the capital has suffered soaring levels of violent crime, including knife crime, under his tenure that have made many Londoners feel less safe. Police statistics show increases in violent offenses, robberies and possession of weapons across London boroughs since 2016. He has faced particular criticism over removing many front-line officers from patrol duties.

The mayor has also faced a backlash, especially in outer London, over his expansion of the Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) charging scheme across all of Greater London last October. Critics have condemned the policy as an extra tax burden that will price poorer drivers off the roads without significantly improving air quality.

Both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have accused Khan of concealing data showing the ULEZ expansion is having a negligible impact on pollution levels until after the election. The Conservatives claim he is hiding figures that would be deeply embarrassing, while the Lib Dems say he is misleading Londoners by falsely attributing air quality improvements to the ULEZ when other factors have played a bigger role.

A spokesman for Khan insisted it takes time to “properly assess” the data on the ULEZ’s impacts. In a recent report, the mayor claimed air quality had improved faster in London than the rest of the country since 2016, with the ULEZ a major factor. He said nitrogen dioxide pollution had been cut in half to record low annual levels, though the figures for much of the year were labelled as provisional.

Supporters insist Khan’s green policies are making London one of the world’s most environmentally friendly cities. But even some Labour supporters have questioned whether the ULEZ goes too far, with small businesses warning of extra costs.

Despite the controversies, Khan’s strong advantages among Labour voters in inner city areas look to have secured his re-election. Though polling shows he is deeply unpopular overall, with 46% of Londoners holding an unfavourable view of the mayor versus just 38% favourable, his healthy lead appears insurmountable.

Londoners are divided on Khan’s record to date, with 41% saying he has done a good job in office and 45% judging him to have performed poorly. His expected victory seems to reflect the realities of Labour’s electoral dominance in the capital.

As Londoners go to the polls, the key question is whether four more years of Khan’s leadership can finally start reversing the concerning trends of rising crime and pollution that have dogged his tenure. Critics insist bolder action is needed, but the mayor’s team argues his policies just need more time to pay dividends for the city.

 Salman Farsi : News Editor, Weekly Desh’s English section. He is a seasoned political communications expert with significant experience in media management, marketing, and public relations. He notably served as the National Press Officer and Acting Head of Regional Media for The Labour Party, where he managed complex media issues and contributed to the 2019 UK General Election strategy.